November 15, 2008

Harper Says G20 Declaration Should Give ‘Hope’

(Video: Associated Press • Story: CTV News)



Prime Minister Stephen Harper is optimistic that members of the G20 have made a plan of attack for the struggling global economy that will give ‘hope’ to people worldwide.

“The declaration should give us all hope, and I would hope it would give the markets some reassurance,” the prime minister said at a news conference in Washington on Saturday.

The leaders of the world’s largest 20 economies met in Washington this weekend to discuss the world financial crisis. On Saturday, they issued a declaration outlining the steps they intend to take to get the global economy back on track.

Some of their agreed-upon resolutions included:

• developing government spending plans to stimulate the economy;

• having more open and better-monitored financial markets;

• developing an early warning system to detect and prevent future economic crises;

• establishing a college of supervisors, to be made up of financial regulators from around the world; and,

• increased liquidity to developing countries who need credit to ensure financial growth.

Harper said there was “a nearly unanimous accord” on the major subjects among the G20 leaders, and that Canada would do its part in upholding its responsibilities in the agreed-upon resolutions. Read the complete article.

Oil – A Vacation From U.S. $100/barrel… For Now

(Carter Group — ScotiaMcLeod)

With Europe, Asia and Japan assumed to be in a synchronized recession for the first time in 60 years, the forecasts for demand of crude oil are literally changing by the minute. These revisions though are entirely focussed on the next year and not the next decade. The myopic view of traders and speculators being what it is, the entire global energy market is being deeply discounted. Wholesale gasoline prices in New York have collapsed by 60% from early September’s record setting prices. Crude oil is less than half of what it was in July and energy stocks as a group have roughly taken the same kind of dramatic haircut.

Given the precipitous drop in prices and the ongoing challenges facing corporate borrowers, we can’t help but wonder how many of the expansion and exploration projects currently in the works will soon be shelved as oil companies adopt a more cautious approach to planned expenditures. These days the markets are swiftly punishing large corporations that follow-thru with takeovers or expensive projects on the books (witness the flogging of Teck Cominco’s shares recently). The expected return on any big oil company’s infrastructure investment looks remarkably different with $60/barrel oil rather than $100/barrel oil. Using Steven Forbes $35/barrel estimate, most infrastructure investments would seem guaranteed money-losers.

Although you wouldn’t know it by looking at this week’s market prices for crude oil, the global energy supply crunch has not gone away. This is an important factor for any investor willing to look beyond the next 12 months. The International Energy Agency was doing its best to deliver a wake-up call during this week’s World Energy Outlook from London, but it doesn’t seem to be finding much luck with getting policy makers to listen (or care).

Canadian Border Sales Show Slight Decrease

(Andrew Pentol — DFNI Online)

Year-on-year sales at Canadian border stores registered a small decrease in the month of August, with sales falling in the Ontario and Prairies regions

Canada’s border store retailers recorded a slight decrease in trading results during August 2008, according to the Canadian Border Services Agency. Year-on-year sales decreased by 1.4% to C$19.1m ($15.6m) and regional sales decreases were also registered at Ontario and Prairies provinces.

The Frontier Duty Free Association (FDFA), which represents Canadian border store operators, attributed the decrease in sales to congestion at land border crossings with the US as a result of tighter security checks, confusion over identification requirements, high petrol prices, the effects of the global economic downturn in the US and the decline of traveller numbers from the US to Canada. Read more here.

Canada’s Trade Surplus Shrinks by $1.1 Billion in September

(StatsCan via Exchange Market Post)

Canada’s trade surplus with the world decreased to $4.5 billion in September from $5.6 billion in August, as exports declined and imports rose. This marks the lowest trade surplus since January 2008.

Canadian exports declined for the second consecutive month, dropping 1.0% to $42.5 billion. The movement was isolated to a drop in prices as volumes remained flat. The retreat was led by industrial goods and materials, automotive products, and energy products.

Canada’s imports increased 1.9% in September to $38.0 billion, as both prices and volumes increased. September’s gain marked the fifth increase in six months following a 5.7% decline in August.

Exports to the United States declined for the second consecutive month as imports remained relatively unchanged at $23.7 billion. Exports fell 1.3% to $32.1 billion, largely due to energy products and automotive products. As a result, the trade surplus with the United States contracted to $8.3 billion in September from $8.7 billion in August.
Exports to countries other than the United States remained flat at $10.4 billion, while imports from these countries collectively increased 5.5%. Consequently, Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the United States expanded to $3.8 billion in September from $3.1 billion in August.

Widespread price declines push export values down

Exports of industrial goods and materials fell for the second consecutive month, decreasing 1.9% to $9.9 billion, as a result of declining prices as volumes edged up. This was the first export price drop in 2008 for a sector that has experienced high commodity prices. Reduced exports to Japan and the United States pushed copper down.

Exports of automotive products fell 3.4% to $5.1 billion, the eighth decline in 12 months. The fall in exports was driven by volume as prices have been on the rise since March 2008. A production plant shutdown and low vehicle sales in the United States were two of the main factors leading to lower exports of trucks and passenger autos in September. Read more here.

November 14, 2008

Air Freight in Canada

(MarketWatch)

Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Air Freight in Canada" report to their offering.

The Air Freight in Canada industry profile is an essential resource for top-level data and analysis covering the air freight industry. It includes detailed data on market size and segmentation, plus textual and graphical analysis of the key trends and competitive landscape, leading companies and demographic information.

Scope

• Contains an executive summary and data on value, volume and/or segmentation
• Provides textual analysis of the industry's recent performance and future prospects
• Incorporates in-depth five forces competitive environment analysis and scorecards
• Includes a five-year forecast of the industry
• The leading companies are profiled with supporting key financial metrics
• Supported by the key macroeconomic and demographic data affecting the market

Highlights

• Detailed information is included on market size, measured by value and/or volume
• Five forces scorecards provide an accessible yet in depth view of the market's competitive landscape

Trucking Chief Says ‘Bring on 2009’

(Canadian Trucking Alliance)

Shippers should consider locking in capacity now in anticipation of recovery

It may take the better part of 2009, at least, for the North American economy to stabilize and begin to recover. But according to the CEO of the Canadian Trucking Alliance, David Bradley, when it does, the demand for trucking services will likely outweigh the supply. At that point, truck rates, which have been hammered during the past 18 months, will be under upward pressure again.

“It’s been a tough year for everyone, motor carriers and shippers, and this has resulted in downward pressure on freight rates in 2008. But shippers would be advised to partner with carriers now to lock-in capacity for when things do inevitably start to come back, which we hope will be sometime in 2009,” he said. “Some shippers get it and are now entering into multiyear agreements with carriers.”

The major problem facing truckers over the past year, or more, has been one of over-capacity – too many trucks for the level of freight being generated by the economy. “Most carriers experienced softer freight demand in 2008, though some sectors of the industry and some regions of the country have, like the economy, been harder hit,” he said. “It doesn’t matter where you operate, all carriers faced a major challenge this year with sky-rocketing diesel fuel prices and a slowing economy. Obviously, the appreciation in the value of the Canadian dollar and slump in the U.S. economy continued to have a profound negative impact on the Central Canadian economies and therefore on the volume of freight, especially in southbound freight to the U.S. which had been the underpinning of industry growth for the past 20 years.” In many traffic lanes, both international and domestic, there were simply too many trucks chasing the freight.

However, according to Bradley, the trucking industry across North America has been shedding capacity. “Carriers have been reducing their fleet sizes, getting rid of trucks and not buying new ones. Many trucking companies have left the market; either because they decided they’d had enough, or they couldn’t get sufficient credit and/or they went bankrupt. Tighter credit has also made it more difficult for people to enter the marketplace. While there will continue to be tough sledding in 2009 – reflecting current global economic concerns and, as always, punctuated by a chronic long-term labour shortage – capacity of trucking services will be that much lower when things do turn the corner,” he said.

Read the complete press release.

Seven Year Old Commodity Price Boom Had Big Impact: StatsCan

(The Canadian Press)

Statistics Canada says the seven-year-old boom in commodity prices had a large impact on key sectors of Canada's economy, buttressing export earnings and profits. The agency says companies substantially increased fixed investment in the resource sector before the recent world financial crisis put a damper on commodity prices.

More detail, and a link to the study, The Role of Natural Resources in Canada's Economy, is on Statistics Canada’s website here.

Manufacturing Sales Up in September: StatsCan

(The Canadian Press)

Statistics Canada reports manufacturing sales edged up 0.1% to $52.2 billion in September after a sizeable decrease in August.

Measured in constant dollars, which takes price fluctuations into account and provides a more accurate measure of sales volume, manufacturing sales rose 0.7% compared with August as a result of decreasing industrial product prices.

The agency reports that 13 of 21 manufacturing industries increased in September. The transportation equipment industry reported the largest gain in September, rising 1.1%, its fourth increase in five months. Sales gains were mostly due to a 4.8% rise in production by aerospace product and parts manufacturers; motor vehicle manufacturers reported a 0.3% decline in September after slipping 4.7% in August.

Primary metal manufacturers posted the most notable decrease in September, reporting a three per cent drop in sales, largely due to a 2.8% decrease in prices.

Summary statistics and links to the data files are on the Statistics Canada website at here.

Live Teleconference: Lacey Act Changes

(Journal of Commerce)

The Journal of Commerce will be holding four important Teleconferences for November and December 2008, including Lacey Act Changes

Wednesday, Nov 19, 2008, 1:30PM EDT

• Moderator: Harry G. Butler, Editor, Official Export Guide and U.S. Custom House Guide
• Robert DeCamp, Director of Regulatory Affairs and Consulting, Deringer Logistics Consulting Group
• Susan Kohn Ross, International Trade Counsel, Mitchell Silberberg & Knupp LLP

To crack down on illegally harvested plants and plant-derived products, the Federal Government is imposing an extensive new reporting requirement for nearly all such items. The range of goods affected is broad, including paper goods, musical instruments, items with wooden handles, textiles, and more, and the information demanded is significant, including the scientific name of the plant(s) used in manufacturing as well as the country or countries where originally harvested. Even paper and paperboard products made of recycled plant content are subject to the new reporting requirement. In early October, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service issued a proposed schedule for implementation of the new reporting requirements. Comments are due by December 8 on the feasibility and details of the proposed implementation schedule, which requests voluntary filing via a paper form beginning Dec. 15 and staged mandatory filing commencing in April 2009.

Who Should Listen: • Importers • Customs Brokers • Foreign Suppliers • Manufacturers

Live participation is $99 and allows access to one phone line for an unlimited number of listeners. A live question and answer session will follow the presentations.

More events, and additional details, at the Journal of Commerce website.

eManifest Newsletter: First Edition (Fall 2008)

(CSCB)

The CBSA has published its first eManifest Newsletter. This is a biannual publication to help keep the trade community informed about the eManifest initiative and is available on the CBSA website here.

C-TPAT: 2009 Supply Chain Security Seminar

(CBP)

U.S. Customs and Border Protection is pleased to announce the 2009 C-TPAT Supply Chain Security Seminar April 1-3, 2009. The seminar is open to all C-TPAT certified partners.

The seminar will be presented in two sessions to accommodate additional registrants. Session I will be held on Wednesday-Thursday, April 1-2 and Session II will be held on Thursday-Friday, April 2-3 in New Orleans, Louisiana.

Registration will begin on Monday, January 5, 2009 through the C-TPAT Members page here.

Former Envoy Says NAFTA Renegotiations Unlikely

(Peter O’Neil — Citizen News Services)

Too much at stake should Obama reopen accord

President-elect Barack Obama will likely find a way to back off his election campaign promise to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, a former Canadian ambassador to the United States and France said yesterday.

“Clearly, he has made the threat during the campaign,” Raymond Chrétien said after a speech to the France-Canada Chamber of Commerce.

“But, once in power in January, once apprised of what is at stake here, I doubt very much that he will want to reopen that.”

Mr. Chrétien, nephew of former prime minister Jean Chrétien, seconded the view of a Belgium-based analyst who said earlier this week that a NAFTA renegotiation is unlikely.

Mr. Chrétien and Fredrick Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy, said opening up NAFTA will be seen as too risky in Washington because of fears that the U.S. could lose its access to Canadian energy, which is guaranteed under the continental accord.

“I think that when apprised of their dependency on Canada’s imports, not only of oil, but of gas, any president would think twice about reopening NAFTA,” said Mr. Chrétien, who started serving as Canadian ambassador to Washington when the trade deal took effect in 1994.

He noted that Bill Clinton opposed North American free trade before his election in 1992.

He said the Obama administration could perhaps be accommodated through a side letter signed by Canada, the U.S. and Mexico relating to labour and environmental standards. Read more here.

November 13, 2008

Bush: Problem Is Not Capitalism

(Associated Press)



President George W. Bush defends free markets in a speech in Manhattan, saying the answer to current economic woes is not to reinvent the system but to fix problems, make reforms and move forward with capitalist-based principles.

Trade Surplus Shrinks in September

(The Canadian Press)

Canada’s trade surplus declined to $4.5 billion in September from $5.6 billion in August, as exports declined and imports rose. Statistics Canada reports exports fell for the second straight month, dropping one per cent to $42.5 billion. The agency says blamed the movement on a drop in prices, as volumes remained flat. The retreat was led by industrial goods and materials, automotive products and energy products.

Imports increased 1.9% in September to $38 billion, the fifth rise in six months as both prices and volumes increased.

Exports to the United States fell 1.3% to $32.1 billion, while imports remained relatively unchanged at $23.7 billion.

As a result, the trade surplus with the United States contracted to $8.3 billion in September from $8.7 billion in August.

Exports to countries other than the United States remained flat at $10.4 billion, while imports from these countries collectively increased 5.5%. Consequently, Canada’s trade deficit with countries other than the United States expanded to $3.8 billion in September from $3.1 billion in August.

Exports of industrial goods and materials fell for the second straight month, decreasing 1.9% to $9.9 billion as prices declined and volumes edged up.

Summary statistics and links to the data files are on the Statistics Canada website here.

November 12, 2008

“10+2” Could Be Served Day Before Thanksgiving

(American Shipper – Eric Kulisch)

U.S. Customs and Border Protection plans to publish the intensely debated “10+2” rule in the Federal Register on November 24 pending a positive review by key oversight committees in Congress, according to spokeswoman Jenny Burke.

The White House on Thursday completed its review of the rule requiring electronic advance information about ocean shipments from importers and carriers, according to an order posted on the federal government’s Web site for regulatory developments.

Customs and Border Protection now has authorization from the Office of Management and Budget to issue the final rulemaking for the Importer Security Filing, which will be used to analyze the potential security risk of container shipments that might contain weapons or other material smuggled by terrorists.

The agency subsequently notified the Ways and Means, Transportation and Infrastructure, and Energy and Commerce committees in the House and the Finance and Commerce, Science and Transportation committees in the Senate of its intent to move forward with the rulemaking, Burke said. Read more here.

November 11, 2008

U.S. Export Study Calls for More Flexibility on Border Policies

(Buffalo News – Matt Glynn)

A new study of export activity along the U.S.-Canadian border suggests using more regional flexibility in continent-wide policies designed to protect the border and keep traffic flowing.
The findings are part of a “Border Brief” prepared by the University at Buffalo’s Regional Institute and the Border Policy Research Institute of Western Washington University.

Discussions about the border have typically focused on a choice between security and commerce, said Kathryn Bryk Friedman, deputy director of the UB Regional Institute. “In my view, this research demonstrates this is a false dichotomy.”

The study focused on export activity in October 2007 at two border points: Buffalo Niagara and Blaine, Wash., which is between Seattle and Vancouver, B. C. October is commonly the peak month for trade due to pre-holiday stockpiling, the report said. During that month, nearly 20% of all U. S.-to-Canada surface exports crossed via bridges in Buffalo and Niagara Falls, compared to more than 5% at Blaine.

Ensuring a smooth flow of traffic is vital because Canada is by far the United States’ largest trading partner, the brief said. U.S. exports to Canada in October 2007 were valued at $23.5 billion, compared to $12.4 billion for Mexico and $5.5 billion to China.

Federal agencies on both sides of the border have implemented prescreening programs that enable participating shippers and drivers to cross the border more quickly, while taking into account heightened security concerns stemming from the 2001 terrorist attacks.

The report suggests that programs such as FAST – short for Free and Secure Trade – work better at some crossings than others along the 5,000-mile-long border, based on the type of shipments and the companies hauling the goods. For instance, about 44% of trucks crossing the Detroit-Windsor border used FAST lanes, compared to 23% in Buffalo Niagara and only 5% at Blaine.

The study said that participation in FAST at Detroit-Windsor is high because so much of the freight is related to automotive manufacturing, an industry with large, sophisticated companies and a small number of shippers.

In Blaine, Wash., FAST participation was low because much of its truck traffic is related to agricultural products, which can be more difficult to screen due to their complex supply chain, the brief said.

“Rather than look to policy solutions at the continental level, policies that allow for some flexibility in regional implementation could improve border efficiencies without compromising border security,” said Peter Lombardi, a UB institute policy analyst and co-author of the brief, in a statement.

The UB Regional Institute and the Border Policy Research Institute of Western Washington University are developing a “border barometer” that will measure a number of factors at the border crossings in the Buffalo area and the Pacific Northwest. It is possible other border points will be included in the barometer, Friedman said.

The barometer will include the movement of goods and people over the border from 1995 to 2007, and also look at factors such as infrastructure, security agreements between officials on opposite sides of the border, and security performance.

“The whole idea is to get these objective measures in place so that we’re all speaking the same language,” Friedman said.

The two institutes have received $11,500 from the Northern Border Research Consortium to develop the barometer. UB, Western Washington University and four other universities belong to the consortium. The barometer results are expected to be released at a conference scheduled for February 2009 in Washington, D.C.

November 10, 2008

CBP Outlines Achievements, Best Practices Under C-TPAT

(World Trade Interactive)

At its recent Trade Symposium in Washington, D.C., U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials gave a presentation on what has been achieved to date under the Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism and the best practices that CBP has identified among C-TPAT participants.

Achievements

CBP provided the following statistics on its efforts under C-TPAT.

• There are 8,647 certified C-TPAT partners, including 4,082 importers, 2,311 carriers, 755 brokers, 758 foreign manufacturers, 688 consolidators and 53 marine port authorities and terminal operators.
• 9,521 validations have been completed, including 7,710 initial validations and 1,811 re-validations.
• Initial validations declined from 2,561 in 2007 to 1,401 in 2008, while re-validations increased from 575 to 1,220.
• 411 participants (including 213 highway carriers) have been suspended from C-TPAT and 271 (including 114 highway carriers)have been removed.
• There are 267 Tier 3 importers.
• There are seven C-TPAT field offices with a total of 195 staff.
• CBP has mutual recognition arrangements with New Zealand, Canada and Jordan; mutual recognition projects with Australia, the European Union, Japan and Singapore; technical assistance projects with Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines and Guatemala; and capacity building training programs with Ghana, Brazil and Kenya.

Best Practices

CBP listed the following as confirmed best practices for C-TPAT participants.

• maintaining a consistent C-TPAT point of contact
• regular monitoring of both C-TPAT Web site and portal account
• security profile maintenance beyond required annual self-assessment
• follow-up questionnaires and inquiries to business partners and providers (outside of initial effort)
• notification to CBP and assigned supply chain security specialist in the event of any security breach or anomaly
• inspection of providers’ facilities by participant personnel
• not allowing double brokering within the supply chain
• using only known providers within the supply chain (specifically other C-TPAT providers)
• establishing C-TPAT committees, working groups or regular meetings and having providers participate in supply chain security meetings or councils
• making C-TPAT participation part of the overall supply chain operation and not a singular program
• random audits by management of processes outside of normal established procedures
• keeping documentation of all supply chain incidents, anomalies or issues for future reference

OMB Approves 10+2 Rule

(Journal of Commerce Online)

The White House Office of Management and Budget has signed off on Customs and Border Protection’s new import security filing rule.

The long-awaited approval of the regulation, known as 10+2, will require importers and carriers to electronically file security data with Customs that does not appear on a carrier’s bill of lading. Customs has said the new information is essential to its security effort.

The amendment is specifically intended to implement the provisions of section 203 of the Security and Accountability for Every Port Act of 2006.

The approval by OMB, which received the rule in August, was announced Thursday. Customs is likely to move forward quickly to issue the final rule, which could appear in the Federal Register early next week.